Illinois Economy Likely Stable In Near Future

A University of Illinois economist said he thinks the state’s economy will likely remain healthy for at least the next year and a half.

Economist J. Fred Giertz compiles the monthly U of I Flash Index—a measure of Illinois’ economic health.

He compiles it for the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and Public Affairs. Readings higher than 100 indicate growth in the state’s economy.

Giertz said the flash index dropped some in June. However, he said Illinois’ economy still appears stable, and it has grown consistently over the last year with the index floating around 104 and 105.

"No one is really predicting a recession any time soon. That doesn't mean it might not happen, but at least right now there's quite a bit of optimism about the economy," said Giertz. 

The economist also notes that Illinois’ unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in more than 18 years.

Giertz said it is surprising the economy is doing so well right now considering the degree of turmoil in state and national politics.

“Lots of things have been happening that you might expect to upset the economy, but the economy seems to be chugging along at a pretty good pace," said Giertz. 

He said that the index does not predict the future. It simply indicates the state’s current economic health using data generated from Illinois’s monthly tax receipts.

Giertz has compiled the flash index for the U of I since 1995 with archive data going back to 1981.